2006年的IT十大战略技术

The ways of technology are notoriously hard to predict and few have a vision of the future. Gartner Inc.’s picks up 10 top strategic technologies for 2006 as following.

1. microcommerce

　　Microcommerce is an online selling/purchasing model that involves the exchange of very small sums of money, sometimes known as micropayments. Gartner forecast that online purchases of products and services priced at less than $5.00 would generate $30 billion per year by 2010. Examples of microcommerce include single song purchases, pay-per-click advertising, and per-article charges for aclearcase/" target="_blank" >ccess to online content.

2. desktop search

　　Desktop search (sometimes called integrated search) is the ability to simultaneously search multiple data sources ——typically including the Internet and corporate intranets and databases as well as hard drives and removable storage on the user’s computer——from a search term entered into a text box on the desktop. Desktop search programs create an index of files stored on the computer, which enables fast and fairly comprehensive searches. The user can search local hard drives, Web sites, e-mail, and other sources without having to minimize the current document or open a browser, e-mail client, or other application. HotBot offers basic desktop search tools; Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google are among the major vendors offering or developing their own versions. Eventually, desktop search could make it possible to find information stored anywhere in the world that was connected, even indirectly, to the Internet.

3. OLED

　　OLED (organic light-emitting diodes) is a display technology, pioneered and patented by Kodak, based on the use of organic polymer material as the semiconductor material in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). A polymer can be a natural or synthetic substance and macro or micro in size. Examples of organic polymers include proteins and DNA. OLED displays are used in cellular phones, digital video cameras, digital versatile disc (DVD) players, personal digital assistants (PDAs), notebooks, car stereos, and televisions. OLED displays are thinner and weigh less because they do not require backlighting. OLED displays also have a wide viewing angle up to 160 degrees even in bright light, and they use only two to ten volts to operate. New technologies that build on the OLED include FOLED (flexible organic light-emitting display), which promises to make highly portable, roll-up displays possible within the next few years.

4. Linux

　　Linux is a Unix-like operating system that was designed to provide personal computer users a free or very low-cost operating system comparable to traditional and usually more expensive Unix systems. Linux has a reputation as a very efficient and fast-performing system. Linux is sometimes suggested as a alternative to Microsoft Windows. But it remains far behind Windows in numbers of users. However, its use in the business enterprise is growing.

5. IM

　　Instant messaging (sometimes called IM) is the ability to easily see whether a chosen friend or co-worker is connected to the Internet and, if they are, to exchange messages with them. Instant messaging differs from ordinary e-mail in the immediacy of the message exchange and also makes a continued exchange simpler than sending e-mail back and forth. Most exchanges are text-only. However, some services, such as AOL, allow voice messaging and file sharing.

　　技术的（发展）道路难于预测是众所周知的，很少有人对（技术的）未来能有先见之明。Gartner公司为2006年挑选了10大战略技术，如下所示。

1. 微观商业

　　微观商业是一个在线的买卖模型，它涉及小额金钱的交易，有时它也称作微型支付。Gartner预测，到2010年，每年购买定价低于5美元的产品和服务，将产生300亿美元的营收。微观商业的例子有购买一首歌、按点击支付的广告以及支付访问在线内容的每篇文章的费用等。

2. 桌面搜索

　　桌面搜索（有时也叫整合搜索）是一种同时搜索多个数据源——通常包括因特网、公司内部网和数据库以及用户计算机上的硬盘和可移动存储设备——的能力，它是按输入在桌面上的文本框内的搜索词条进行搜索。桌面搜索程序对存储在计算机中的文件生成索引，实现快速、合理的综合搜索。用户可以搜索本地磁盘、网站、电子邮件和其他的数据源，而不必缩小当前文件或打开浏览器、电邮客户端或其他应用程序。HotBot提供了基本的桌面搜索工具，在大厂商中，Microsoft、Yahoo和Google已经或者正在开发自己版本的桌面搜索工具。最终，桌面搜索有可能实现找到储存在世界任何地方、连在因特网上（甚至非直接连接的）信息。

3. 有机发光二极管

　　OLED（有机发光二极管）是一项由柯达公司带头研制并拥有专利的显示技术，它是基于使用有机聚酯材料作为发光二极管中的半导体材料。聚酯可以是自然的、也可以是合成的，在尺寸上可以是宏观的、也可以是微观的。有机聚酯材料包括蛋白质和DNA。OLED显示器用于手机、数码相机、DVD播放器、个人数字助手（PDA）、笔记本电脑、汽车立体声音响和电视。由于不需要背景光，所以OLED显示器更薄、更轻。OLED还有更宽的视角，甚至在亮光下视角也高达160度，它们只用2至10伏电压工作。FOLED（柔软的有机发光显示器）是制造OLED的新技术，有望在今后几年中实现便携、能卷起来的显示器。

4. Linux

　　Linux是类似于Unix的操作系统，旨在为个人计算机用户提供免费的或者极低成本的、与传统且较为昂贵的Unix系统相当的操作系统。Linux以高效、高性能的著称。有时，还建议将它作为微软Windows的替代品。但它在用户数量上仍远远落后于Wingdows。然而，它在企业中的应用在增长。

5. IM

　　即时通信（有时叫做IM）是一种方法，据此很容易看到朋友或同事是否联在因特网上，如果联网，就能与他们交换信息。即时通信在信息交换的及时性方面与普通的电子邮件有区别，它使连续交换（信息）比来回传送电子邮件更简单。大多数此类交换只是文本。然而，有些服务（比如AOL的）允许声音传信和文件共享。

原文转自：http://www.ltesting.net